Blog
The Calm in the TempestMy goal is to explain complex phenomena and solve business problems using data, sober analysis, simple processes, and reasonable explanations. If you are interested and intrigued by what you see, get in touch and let’s do business together.
RULES OF MY BLOG
Welcome to my blog, where I provide insight, analysis, and ideas for free to anyone who wants them. I abide by certain and specific rules when I write and post. I will follow these rules explicitly, and I will expect and require you to do the same as a reader: You...
Learning from the Terra Meltdown
The last 6 weeks have certainly been a painful experience for cryptocurrency enthusiasts and investors, with Bitcoin crashing a full 35% since May 15th (and, at the time of writing, a staggering 71% from its all-time high from mid-November 2021). Given Bitcoin's...
Understanding the SABR Model for Option Pricing
When pricing options, one must always be careful to model the implied volatility of the instrument appropriately. This is not actually particularly easy, because implied volatility is, by definition, not observable in the market. It is essentially a value that, when...
How to Build Your Online Brand
There are many reasons to start up a website. Most of them are not serious. Plenty of people have started up their own blogs, but few of them last longer than 6 months. Almost none last more than a year. As it happens, very, very few people have the discipline and the...
Why Russia is an underrated business opportunity
Whenever anyone mentions "Russia", the mental image that springs into most people's heads tends to be rather mysterious and perhaps even a little frightening. Most people still associate Russia with the Cold War, the Hell-Times of Communism, and the grey and...
Why Financialisation Damages Markets and Destroys Value
When future economic (and regular) historians will look back over the past century of financial crashes and panics, one wonders what they will conclude. They may argue that we sowed the seeds of our own fiscal and financial destruction. If so, they will certainly be...
Always remember your “hidden client”
Most of us like to think that our jobs are simple and straightforward. We get a specific task by our managers or bosses. And we then set out to accomplish that task to the best of our abilities. If we do a good job, our bosses reward us. If we do a bad job, they...
Beware of geeks bearing models
Modelling complex phenomena is as much an art as it is a science. The past twenty years have given us a number of examples where models have gone very badly wrong. These examples serve to demonstrate very clearly the inherent dangers of taking models too seriously....
How and why Product Control teams fail
Product control in the context of capital markets is one of the most important functions in any organisation that trades financial products. The timely, complete, and accurate reporting of profit and loss (P&L) is essential to the proper functioning of such a...
The difference between risk and uncertainty
Given the turbulence seen in financial markets and elsewhere these days, people are rightly confused and worried about the future. Forward planning under current circumstances is incredibly difficult. I have spoken to good friends who are used to planning months or...
How to recover from losing your job
Everyone suffers severe losses at some point in his or her life. In my personal opinion, three of the absolute worst kinds of loss are: the death of a child; divorce (especially for men, who are very often blindsided by them); and losing your job due to a layoff. Each...
Recent Thoughts
Learning from the Terra MeltdownIn Insights and AdviceJune 29, 2022No Comments
Understanding the SABR Model for Option PricingIn Insights and AdviceJune 10, 2022No Comments
How to Build Your Online BrandIn Insights and AdviceMarch 28, 2021No Comments
Why Russia is an underrated business opportunityIn Insights and AdviceMarch 12, 2021No Comments
Why Financialisation Damages Markets and Destroys ValueIn Insights and AdviceJanuary 21, 2021No Comments
Always remember your “hidden client”In Insights and AdviceDecember 27, 2020No Comments
