When future economic (and regular) historians will look back over the past century of financial crashes and panics, one wonders what they will conclude. They may argue that we sowed the seeds of our own fiscal and financial destruction. If so, they will certainly be...
Modelling complex phenomena is as much an art as it is a science. The past twenty years have given us a number of examples where models have gone very badly wrong. These examples serve to demonstrate very clearly the inherent dangers of taking models too seriously....
Given the turbulence seen in financial markets and elsewhere these days, people are rightly confused and worried about the future. Forward planning under current circumstances is incredibly difficult. I have spoken to good friends who are used to planning months or...
Everyone suffers severe losses at some point in his or her life. In my personal opinion, three of the absolute worst kinds of loss are: the death of a child; divorce (especially for men, who are very often blindsided by them); and losing your job due to a layoff. Each...
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