The personal computer has been with us since at least the mid-1980s. During that roughly 40-year period, we have seen a number of different operating systems come and go. Back in the really old days, one could purchase PCs with an astonishing variety of operating systems, including offerings from IBM, Xerox, Apple, and others. In fact, I grew up using Mac OS – back before the days of Darwin. But through the 1990s, Microsoft positioned itself as the absolute standard operating system for all PCs. They managed this through a combination of brilliant strategy, careful positioning, and a considerable amount of blind luck. However, the software landscape is rapidly changing, and I think it is time to look at how Linux will conquer the software world.

Now, many smart and well-informed people have predicted that Linux will take over the desktop computing environment. Those predictions have been consistently and completely WRONG. Any honest observer must admit this fact, no matter how much he loves open source software.

So why do I confidently predict that Linux – or Free/Libre Open-Source Software (FLOSS), if you prefer – will take over the one realm that it has thus far failed to dominate?

Because there are some major changes within the world of Windows that make this likely, perhaps even inevitable. At least one legendary programmer and hacker thinks that Windows will eventually become an emulation layer sitting on a Linux kernel. I think that he is right, and I’ll explain why.

Linux is THE Dominant Software Paradigm…

Before we look at how and why that will happen, let’s see how FLOSS is used right now.

(By the way, Linux is not the only open-source operating system around. There are many, many more. Linux simply describes a general class of operating systems that share a common kernel. Within that class is a truly bewildering array of systems. But you can also download and install systems based around the original UNIX code, such as FreeBSD. You can download systems based around the old Sun Microsystems Solaris implementation of UNIX. For the purposes of this article, I use the terms “Linux” and “open-source” interchangeably except where clearly demarcated.)

Linux is unquestionably incredibly dominant in a number of other areas:

• According to W3Techs, “UNIX” operating systems run 70% of the top 10 million domains in the world, ranked by Alexa;
• Google’s Chromebooks have been gaining significant market share in the US education sector, using an operating system derived from Linux;
• Cloud-services providers, especially Amazon EC2, report very heavy use of Linux virtual machines on their platforms;
• The Android mobile operating system, which is based on a Linux kernel, controls something like 70% of the global smartphone and tablet markets;
• Linux runs on over 98% of the 500 most powerful supercomputers in the world – and the rest run on UNIX;

This is before we get into other areas and applications such as the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), embedded technologies, government software, Hollywood CGI, and so on. You cannot get away from the fact that operating systems derived from the Linux kernel are absolutely everywhere.

… Except for Personal Computing

So why do people not use Linux in home computing environments? Why do most people still buy new desktops and laptops for home and office use with Windows installed?

This is for four major reasons:

1. Microsoft captured the corporate market early. Possibly the smartest business move that Microsoft ever made was to create an intuitive and simple graphical operating system for IBM’s computers. At that time, IBM was THE gold-standard for corporate computing. This move, combined with Microsoft’s highly aggressive marketing tactics, put Microsoft way ahead of any competitors.
2. Microsoft made great deals with computer manufacturers. If you walked into a computer store back before, oh, about 2016, you could see Microsoft Windows on sale. And you could notice something odd. Windows bought from a store cost VASTLY more than a preinstalled version. Microsoft did that specifically to improve penetration and market share, and kept up that practice for years after it achieved market dominance.
3. Microsoft’s hardware support was the best. Military planners like to say that “quantity has a quality all of its own”. This is true – there are huge advantages to being, well, huge. When you are the dominant player in a market, everyone dances to your tune. Because Microsoft was so dominant, hardware manufacturers wrote their drivers specifically for Windows. Eventually, this meant that:
4. Microsoft was the dominant gaming platform. You simply couldn’t play computer games on anything else. It was just that simple.

But now, the very same things that drove Windows to absolute dominance, and “relegated” Linux to servers and web hosting, are working against it. Here is how Linux will conquer the world of desktop computing:

Head in the Clouds

The plain fact is that most of what we do today doesn’t actually require Windows. Consider what you use your PC or laptop for on a daily basis. You probably:

• Read and write emails;
• Watch videos on YouTube;
• Listen to music;
• Surf the web;
• Use social media platforms;

Did you notice anything about these activities?

None of them actually require Windows exclusively.

You can do just about ALL of those things using just a web browser. And the beauty of a web browser is that it can run on ANY operating system. You aren’t tied to any one OS anymore.

That, right there, eliminates about 80-90% of the reason to use Windows immediately.

Microsoft is rapidly figuring this out now, after wasting a lot of time and money, and understands that Windows isn’t actually strictly necessary anymore. But they are doing it. That is why Microsoft put the open-source browser Chromium at the heart of its latest version of its own web browser, Edge.

Resistance is Futile

You used to need Windows to do anything useful with your PC. But now that is simply no longer true. You don’t need to connect a physical cable to your printer anymore. We now have web-based printing. And whereas developers once had to write their own drivers from scratch for Linux, today’s distros have excellent hardware compatibility.

There is, however, one major area where Linux has simply failed to make any real headway. That area is: gaming. But that is changing. And that gives us a clue as to how Linux will conquer the world.

Game designers created their products specifically for Windows, simply because EVERYONE runs Windows. And game designers used to have to choose between writing their games for one specific platform or another – Xbox vs Playstation vs Windows. PC gamers used to think of themselves as “superior”, because PC gamers could soup up their hardware to levels that consoles simply couldn’t match.

That, too, is no longer the case. Most gamers use multiple devices – mobile, console, and PC. And game developers increasingly recognise this. That is why cross-platform stores like Steam are gaining so much traction.

Steam is a particularly interesting case. This platform and store is a product of Valve Corporation, and those guys love Linux. That is why they have created their own Linux emulation layer – based on open-source Wine and other technologies – to allow gamers to run their games on Linux.

I have personally tried this approach to play my favourite FPS series of all time, HALO, on Linux. Honestly, my results were not great. But it is, in fact, possible to play HALO: The Master Chief Collection on Linux:

This is the last major obstacle standing in the way of Linux proliferation on the desktop. And it’s GONE.

How Linux Will Conquer the World – Without Us Ever Knowing

So how, exactly, will Linux conquer the world? Legendary hacker and FLOSS guru Eric S. Raymond breaks it down for us:

Microsoft Windows becomes a Proton-like emulation layer over a Linux kernel, with the layer getting thinner over time as more of the support lands in the mainline kernel sources. The economic motive is that Microsoft sheds an ever-larger fraction of its development costs as less and less has to be done in-house.

If you think this is fantasy, think again. The best evidence that it’s already the plan is that Microsoft has already ported Edge to run under Linux. There is only one way that makes any sense, and that is as a trial run for freeing the rest of the Windows utility suite from depending on any emulation layer.

So, the end state this all points at is: New Windows is mostly a Linux kernel, there’s an old-Windows emulation over it, but Edge and the rest of the Windows user-land utilities don’t use the emulation. The emulation layer is there for games and other legacy third-party software.

Economic pressure will be on Microsoft to deprecate the emulation layer. Partly because it’s entirely a cost center. Partly because they want to reduce the complexity cost of running Azure. Every increment of Windows/Linux convergence helps with that – reduces administration and the expected volume of support traffic.

And eventually, Microsoft Windows simply becomes an emulation layer, sitting on top of a Linux kernel.

That is how Linux will conquer the world – not through commercial competition, but through absorption. And, in all honesty, that is a wonderful thing, because everybody wins.

Linux users finally get top-tier games and the unbeatable strengths of Microsoft Office, running natively on top of a file system and kernel that they really understand.

Windows users will finally get the speed, stability, robustness, and solid engineering that their system has ALWAYS lacked.

And the story of Linux will finally come full circle, where a true noisy bazaar of ideas will have taken over from the austere, staid, inflexible cathedral that once overshadowed it.